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Remarks Prepared for Delivery
Marion C. Blakey
Administrator
Federal Aviation Administration
2004 Forecast Speech: Building a New Edifice of Aviation with Industry
March 25, 2004

Last year, I closed my speech here by saying that the FAA would be ready when traffic rebounds.

Today, I’m happy to say it has… and we are.

Our entire aviation community has come together over the past two-and-a-half years… together we’ve weathered one of the most challenging periods in U.S. aviation since deregulation. And we are now emerging stronger than ever before.

Our experts characterize it as “moderate sustained growth” with traffic on track to return to pre 9-11 levels by 2006.

It’s true, we’ve drawn up a new master plan, and we’ve begun construction on a new edifice of aviation. Today, I want to talk about its foundation, its framework, and its global future.

First, we have a foundation that is literally built on concrete.

Through the FAA’s Operational Evolution Plan, we teamed with airport authorities to speed the commissioning of new runways… and we focused on our nation’s top 35 airports. Last year, the FAA commissioned four new runways at some very busy airports – Houston, Orlando, Miami, and Denver – raising our nation’s airport capacity in one year by 4 percent. That’s like adding an extra seat every couple of rows in a 747… and everyone gets to keep their legroom.

Staying the course in new runway construction was never a question. Already, we’re seeing traffic at 9 OEP airports at pre 9-11 levels, with 6 more expected to get there this year. That’s why runway construction must and will remain a priority… it’s still the best way to increase the capacity of our system.

And as we build on this foundation, we must strive to understand how our dynamic landscape is changing.

  • We’re seeing the rise of new competition… Low-cost airlines are proving their capabilities, and are expanding their profitability. Our legacy carriers – the “majors” — are restructuring to compete.
  • We’re seeing smaller planes enter our system in record numbers – with regional and commuter carriers more than doubling since 2000. These planes now account for nearly half of all commercial activity… and point-to-point flying is becoming a reality.
  • What’s more, we’re seeing a surge in adaptations like fractional ownership. The FAA issued a rule last year that ensures common standards in this area.

What kind of impact are these new trends going to have on the aviation community… and our national economy?

We’re not completely sure… but we do know that we need to work together to be prepared for what may come.

And we have a timely example of this. Yesterday, history was made at Herndon when the Secretary unveiled a plan that will allow us to increase capacity and reduce delays… Our goal is to realize growth without gridlock by working with our stakeholders more closely than ever before.

Earlier this very month, about 70 leaders from all over the aviation community came together. Through systematic discussion and compromise, we reached some solutions. As of Monday, we’ve started trying them out.

First, we created “express lanes” at some airports in our country that are already running at pre-9/11 levels. By keeping certain parts of the airspace around an airport clear, we can allow for unrestricted departures. We’re talking to our air traffic controllers and industry leaders on a daily basis to see how it’s working.

Another tactic we’re implementing is called “delay triggering.” It will kick into gear when one airport has 90-minute delays or more. We must work with incoming traffic to allow busy airports a chance to catch up. This will slow the ripple effect that occurs when planes get backed up at one busy hub because of bad weather or high levels of congestion.

In addition to these measures, the FAA’s Reauthorization – Vision 100 – is allowing the FAA and the DOT to take better action when delays start piling up. We want our airlines and our airports to work together for the benefit of the flying public. You know, the marketplace should be able to take care of itself and the people it serves. But when that isn’t happening, we’re prepared to step in. It’s not our first choice, but it’s a decision we’re prepared to make when we need to.

All of the efforts I’ve mentioned today have one thing in common — they depend on increased levels of teamwork.

We must continue to provide our aviation system with stronger and sturdier supports… and to lift new beams into place, we’ll need everyone pulling on the ropes.

But that begs another question. Who else is on our team? Who are we leaving out?

Of course, I’d be remiss not to mention all the others who work to ensure safety — controllers, flight service station employees, and airways facilities technicians… Manufacturers, repair stations, and engineers… And I could go on. Their efforts have helped give us the lowest commercial accident rate since the FAA began measuring it.

The work of safety personnel in the FAA and across our industry contributes mightily to the integrity of our “construction tools and materials,” if you will.

But there are many more people involved as well. Put simply, our aviation team can no longer be thought of on a national scale — it is global.

At this conference last year, I had the privilege of announcing a new international aviation office. Since then, we’ve published our five-year Flight Plan, which places International Leadership alongside our top goals of safety, capacity and organizational excellence — each of which I’ve already touched on.

Consider these facts… More and more developing countries are meeting international standards… By 2020, China’s air traffic operations will rank second only to our own…. Regional regulatory models are developing in areas such as the Caribbean and in Africa.

Working across language and cultural barriers toward a common goal is a challenge… but we can’t ignore the growing strength of other aviation systems. There are too many rewards that we’re already realizing. For example…

  • New training partnerships that enhance safety, such as those we just established between the FAA Academy and the Singapore Aviation Academy…
  • New bilateral agreements that increase trade of both ideas and products, such as those recently signed in Brazil, where I’ll be visiting next week…
  • And, of course, new destinations for U.S. business and tourism, such as Vietnam, where our Deputy recently returned from.

I saw these kind of developments first-hand just a few weeks ago when I visited the Far East. The potential there is staggering.

In short, we must take a global approach in almost any decisions we make in industry and government alike. I feel very strongly that this is critical in our efforts to maximize the safety, efficiency, and overall economic strength of aviation here in the U.S.

We must continue to work from a common foundation… we must build a new framework using the best people and materials available to us… and we must plan for aviation’s global future.

And what we need is your continued commitment to partnering with us to construct this edifice… because when we are finished, and we can cross our arms and look up… we will realize not only that it is stronger… but we, ourselves, are stronger too.

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