Similar to commercial aviation, the FAA is focused on reducing general aviation accidents by using a primarily non-regulatory, proactive, and data-driven strategy to get results.

Reducing Risk
The FAA and industry are working together to use data to identify risk, pinpoint trends through root cause analysis, and develop safety strategies. The group is moving toward using de-identified GA operations data in the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) program to help identify risks before they become accidents. Data from these programs can also be used for GA Joint Steering Committee (GAJSC) initiatives and research conducted by the GA Centers for Excellence. The agency also reviews airworthiness directives to identify causal factors and trends.

Formed in the mid-1990s, the GAJSC has a renewed effort to combat GA fatal accidents. The GAJSC is a government and industry group that uses the same approach as the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST). It uses a data-driven, consensus-based approach to analyze safety data to develop specific interventions that will mitigate the root causes of accidents. The group recently proposed 23 safety interventions to address Loss of Control during approach and landing.

Other achievements include several web-based resource guides, including the General Aviation Pilots Guide to Preflight Weather Planning, Weather Self-Briefings, and Weather Decision Making, which provides advice to pilots on how to make safe weather flying decisions.

The GAJSC combines the expertise of many key decision makers across different parts of the FAA, various government agencies, and several GA associations. The other federal agencies are National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the National Transportation Safety Board (as an observer). Industry participants include Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Experimental Aircraft Association, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, National Business Aviation Association, National Air Transportation Association, and others.

Aircraft Design
The FAA is working with industry and other civil aviation authorities to develop a performance-based approach to airworthiness standards for Part 23 airplanes. These airplanes range from small piston-powered airplanes to complex high-performance executive jets. The goal is to set an international standard that advances the introduction of new technology and reduces fatal accidents and certification costs by 50 percent.

Recommendations are being developed by a 55-member rulemaking committee that includes representatives from the FAA, European Aviation Safety Agency, National Civil Aviation Agency of Brazil, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Transport Canada, Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand, several airplane and avionics manufacturers, and industry groups. The committee expects to finalize recommendations in 2013.

The FAA is also working with manufacturers to build stall resistance into aircraft through the use of improved aerodynamics, limited pitch control capability, and sensed angle of attack to better inform the pilot. This work has contributed to the production of autopilots that provide automatic limiting to help prevent Loss of Control.

New Technology
The FAA is working with manufacturers to define equipage requirements and support NextGen by streamlining the certification and installation of NextGen technologies. The introduction of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) enhances GA pilots awareness of other traffic and improves safety in areas that radar cannot reach, such as Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. The FAA is clarifying the role of data-link weather in GA operations and the use of portable equipment. Other efforts focus on icing forecast and avoid and detect and escape.

New technologies such as inflatable restraints, ballistic parachutes, weather in the cockpit, angle of attack indicators, and terrain avoidance equipment could significantly reduce GA fatalities. Inflatable restraints and angle of attack indicators have the greatest likelihood of significantly improving safety.

The FAA has streamlined the approval of angle of attack indicators for GA aircraft and is working to promote the retrofit of the existing fleet. Angle of attack indicators provide the pilot with a visual aid to prevent Loss of Control of the aircraft in the critical phases of flight. Previously, cost and complexity of indicators limited their use to the military and commercial aircraft. The FAA is also streamlining the certification and installation of inflatable restraints (air bags)with the goal of making all GA aircraft eligible for installation.

Engagement & Outreach
Airman Testing Standards and Training. To keep pace with advances in technology and educational training methods, the FAA chartered the Airman Testing Standards and Training Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) in September 2011 to engage stakeholders to recommend ways to improve the quality of general aviation airman knowledge, computer testing supplements, guides, practical test standards, and training handbooks. The ARC also considered how to develop test questions that incorporate expert input and review while balancing the need to safeguard test integrity. The ARCs report is available at www.faa.gov/aircraft/draft_docs. To implement key ARC recommendations, the FAA tasked an Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee Working Group in August 2012 to develop integrated airman certification standards documents, guidance, and test materials for the private pilot and instructor certificates and instrument ratings.

Safety Standdowns. In 2011, the FAA launched a five-year initiative on education and outreach. The FAA Safety Team (www.faasafety.gov) or FAASTeam is devoted to decreasing aircraft accidents by promoting a cultural change in the aviation community through education and training. The FAASTeam focuses on teamwork and instruction on the use of risk management tools. In 2012, the FAASTeam held 93 safety standdown events across the country to reach general aviation pilots and mechanics. There have been 97 events held so far in 2013. Several FAA employees and thousands of volunteer safety representatives participated. The FAASTeam continues outreach through online courses, local seminars, and awards programs.

Topics in 2012 included:

• Positive Flight Attitude - Professionalism should characterize every action a pilot takes. Approach every flight as if your life depends on it, because it does.
• Going Beyond Preflight - A proper preflight is crucial. Its more than using a checklist; a good preflight should test how well you know your aircraft and its systems.
• En Route Cruise -Avoid complacency, stay ahead of the aircraft, plan for the unplanned, and alwaysalwaysmaintain situational awareness.
• Maneuvering Flight - Attention to airspeed is critical. Loss of control in maneuvering flight often results from inattention to airspeed.

In 2013, the FAASTeam will continue to present information sessions to the general aviation community with particular focus on human error and Loss of Control.

Online Resources. The FAASTeams web site www.faasafety.gov is a good resource for pilots to help improve their skills and knowledge. The site hosts the FAA WINGS pilot proficiency program. It also contains online pilot training materials and includes courses to help a pilot avoid the pitfalls of VFR flight into Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). Pilots, flight instructors, and mechanics are encouraged to register online.

Amateur-Built Airplanes. Amateur-built and other experimental aircraft, the fastest growing segment of general aviation, were involved in 22 percent of U.S. fatal general aviation accidents over the past five years and account for an estimated five percent of total general aviation fleet hours. Loss of Control remains the leading cause of fatal accidents involving amateur-built aircraft. The FAA published Airmen Transition to Experimental or Unfamiliar Airplanes (Advisory Circular 90-109) based on recommendations from the Amateur-Built Flight Standardization Board. The AC provides guidance and training experience recommendations to owners, pilots and flight instructors who fly experimental airplanes.

Certificated Flight Instructors. The FAA has been working with the flight instructor community to improve GA safety through improved flight instructor training, most notably recurrent training. In December 2010, the FAA met with industry sponsors of Flight Instructor Refresher Clinics (FIRC) and published updated guidance materials.

Aviation Universities and Experts. Working through the Aviation Accreditation Board International (AABI) and the University Aviation Association (UAA), the FAA is partnering with the aviation academic community to leverage their expertise and develop best practices for improving flight training. As a first step, the FAA and AABI co-chaired an FAA/Academia Symposium in conjunction with AABIs July 2011 Industry-Educator Forum. Results were presented at the September 2011 UAA Fall Education Conference and at the February 2012 AABI Winter Meeting. These meetings provided a springboard for identifying specific non-regulatory measures that can be used to improve flight training and reduce accidents

Helicopter Safety. The International Helicopter Safety Team (IHST) promotes safety and works to reduce civil helicopter accidents worldwide. The organization was formed in 2005 to lead a government and industry cooperative effort to address factors that were affecting an unacceptable helicopter accident rate. The groups vision is an international civil helicopter community with zero accidents. Government and industry participants include the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, Helicopter Association International, AgustaWestland, the American Helicopter Society International, Bell Helicopter, The Boeing Co., Bristow Group, CHC Helicopter, Eurocopter, the European Aviation Safety Agency, the Helicopter Association of Canada, Robinson Helicopter, Shell Aircraft, and Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation. Worldwide partners supporting the work of the IHST are located in the United States, Canada, Brazil, Japan, Australia, India, Russia, and multiple countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

Background

The General Aviation Accident Rate. While the number of fatal general aviation accidents over the last decade has gone down, so have the estimated of total GA flight hours, likely due to economic factors.

Over the past three years, fatal accidents from Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) have been reduced by more than 50 percent compared to the previous three years.

However, the general aviation fatal accident rate appears to have remained relatively static based on the FAAs flight hours estimates. The preliminary estimate for FY 2012 is a fatal accident rate of 1.09. Final data will be available later this year. In FY 2011, there were 275 fatal GA accidents. In 2010, there were 270 fatal GA accidents. The accident rate for 2011 was 1.13 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours flown and was 1.10 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours flown in 2010.

The Top 10 Leading Causes of Fatal General Aviation Accidents 2001-2011

1.Loss of Control Inflight
2.Controlled Flight Into Terrain
3.System Component Failure Powerplant
4.Low Altitude Operations
5.Unknown or Undetermined
6.Other
7.Fuel Related
8.System Component Failure Non-Powerplant
9.Midair Collisions
10.Windshear or Thunderstorm

The goal of AirPASS is to provide incentives for aircraft equipage, which in turn will accelerate the benefits of NextGen - faster, more efficient flights, enhanced safety and less fuel burn. Those benefits can be fully attained if a large percentage of aircraft in a particular airspace or at a particular location are NextGen-equipped.

The FAA last year held public meetings and tasked a cross-agency group to identify potential AirPASS scenarios that could be implemented in about two years. The agency is now planning for the following scenarios:

• Deconflicting airport operations and reducing weather minimums at New York's LaGuardia and JFK airports, as well as at Chicago O'Hare and Midway.
• Pairing Simultaneous Offset Instrument Approaches (SOIA) at San Francisco. SOIA procedures enable aircraft to fly dual approaches to runways spaced less than 2,500 feet apart, even in marginal weather conditions requiring pilots to rely on their instruments.
• Giving priority to aircraft equipped with Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) on East Coast offshore routes in order to relieve congestion on mainland north-south routes.
• Allowing aircraft equipped with ADS-B to perform In-Trail Procedures in the South Pacific, which would allow them to more easily climb to more efficient, fuel-saving altitudes.

The FAA is developing AirPass in response to recommendations from a RTCA task force in 2009 that recommended that the agency consider operational and financial incentives to improve aircraft equipage. In 2011, the NextGen Advisory Committee also recommended that the FAA develop equipage incentives.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requires that commercial service airports, regulated under Part 139 safety rules and federally obligated, have a standard Runway Safety Area (RSA) where possible. The RSA is typically 500 feet wide and extends 1,000 feet beyond each end of the runway. The FAA has this requirement in the event that an aircraft overruns, undershoots, or veers off the side of the runway. Many airports were built before the 1,000-foot RSA length was adopted some 20 years ago, and it is not practicable to achieve the full standard RSA. This is due to obstacles such as bodies of water, highways, railroads, and populated areas or severe drop-off of terrain.

The FAA began conducting research in the 1990s to determine how to ensure maximum safety at airports where the full RSA cannot be obtained. Working in concert with the University of Dayton, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Engineered Arresting Systems Corporation (ESCO) of Logan Township, NJ, a new technology emerged to safely arrest overrunning aircraft. EMAS uses crushable concrete placed at the end of a runway to stop an aircraft that overruns the runway. The tires of the aircraft sink into the lightweight concrete and the aircraft is decelerated as it rolls through the material.

Benefits of the EMAS Technology

The EMAS technology improves safety benefits in cases where land is not available, or not possible to have the standard 1,000-foot overrun. A standard EMAS installation extends 600 feet from the end of the runway. An EMAS arrestor bed can be installed to help slow or stop an aircraft that overruns the runway, even if less than 600 feet of land is available.

Current FAA Initiatives

The Office of Airports prepared an RSA improvement plan for the runways at approximately 575 commercial airports in 2005. This plan allows the agency to track the progress and to direct federal funds for making all practicable improvements, including the use of EMAS technology. Of the approximately 1,000 RSAs at these airports, an estimated 65 percent have been improved to full standards, and an estimated 90 percent have been improved to the extent practicable, not including the relocation of FAA-owned navigational equipment.

The FAA has conducted research through the Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) that examined a number of alternatives to the existing approved system. ACRP Report 29, Developing Improved Civil Aircraft Arresting Systems, is available at the Transportation Research Board web site at http://www.trb.org/ACRP/. Presently, all EMAS installations are done by ESCO.

Many of the EMAS beds installed prior to 2006 need periodic re-painting to maintain the integrity and functionality of the bed. ESCO has developed improved plastic seal coating for EMAS beds. This new coasting should eliminate the need for the periodic re-painting.

EMAS Arrestments

To date, there have been eight incidents where EMAS has safely stopped overrunning aircraft with a total of 235 crew and passengers aboard those flights.

EMAS Installations

Currently, EMAS is installed at 68 runway ends at 45 airports in the United States, with plans to install five EMAS systems at four additional U.S. airports.

Additional projects currently under contract

The FAA's wildlife hazardmanagement program has been in place for more than 50 years and focuses on mitigating wildlife hazards on or near airports through habitat modification, harassment technology, and research.

FAA Wildlife Hazard Mitigation Efforts

The FAA has a number of initiatives underway, including:

Wildlife Strike Awareness Posters
Toencourage and increase wildlife strike reporting in the general aviation (GA) community, the FAA's Office of Airports developed a "Report Wildlife Strikes" awareness poster in 2011 and 2012. As part of the outreach effort, the FAA printed and distributed approximately 12,000 posters each year. The posters were sent to general aviation airports, aviation schools, other organizations and associations, and Part 139 certificated airports. Part 139 airports receive an operating certificate from the FAA because they operate with an increased level of oversight and safety.

Wildlife Hazards at General Aviation Airports
The Office of Airports encourages GA airports to conduct Wildlife Hazard Assessments to determine what, if any, wildlife mitigation is needed. The FAA will support GA airports by making Airport Improvement Program grants available to conduct an assessment.

Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Reports
The FAA provided funding and expertise for two Airport Cooperative Research Program reports, Bird Harassment, Repellent, and Deterrent Techniques for Use on and Near Airports (2011) and Guidebook for Addressing Aircraft/Wildlife Hazards at General Aviation Airports (2010). The reports are available on http://wildlife.faa.gov.

National Wildlife Strike Database Goes Public
On April 24, 2009, the FAA made its entire bird strike database available to the public. Over the last four years the FAA has received 40,198 civil aircraft strike reports - 9,539 in 2009; 9,919 in 2010; 10,090 in 2011 and 10, 650 in 2012.

FAA Advisory Circulars
Draft Advisory Circular (AC) 150/ 5200- 32B-Reporting Wildlife Aircraft Strikes, public comment period ended on January 31, 2013.

Draft Advisory Circular 150/ 5200- 33C-Hazardous Wildlife Attractants On or Near Airports, public comment period ended on January 31, 2013. Principal changes include the FAA clarifying that Grant Assurance No. 19 requires Subject Airports to have a qualified airport wildlife biologist conduct a Wildlife Hazard Assessment (Assessment) or Wildlife Hazard Site Visit (Site Visit). The AC also clarifies requirements and expectations concerning Site Visits, Assessments and Wildlife Hazard Management Plans (Plan) for non-certificated airports.

Draft Advisory Circular 150/ 5200- XX-Protocol for the Conduct and Review of Wildlife Hazard Site Visits, Wildlife Hazard Assessments, and Wildlife Hazard Management Plans is a new AC and the public comment period ended January 31, 2013. This AC defines the minimum acceptable standards for the conduct and preparation of Site Visits, Assessments and Plans.

Level of Reporting and Mandatory Reporting
Dr. Richard Dolbeer, a wildlife hazard mitigation expert, conducted a study for the FAA and issued a report in December 2009. He estimated that 39 percent of all wildlife strikes at certificated airports from 2004 - 2008 were reported into the National Wildlife Strike Database, an increase from the estimated 20 percent reported from 1990 - 1994. The increased reporting of strikes is due, in part, to professionally-run wildlife hazard programs. These efforts are likely responsible for the concurrent decline in reported strikes with damage within the airport environment less than 500 feet above ground level from 2000-2011 in spite of continued increases in populations of many large bird species. Dolbeer determined the current level of reporting (39 percent) is statistically valid and is sufficient for the FAA to track national trends in wildlife strikes, to determine the hazard level of species struck and to provide a scientific foundation for FAA wildlife mitigation policies and guidance. Therefore, the FAA believes mandating wildlife strike reporting is unnecessary. The FAA will continue to evaluate its wildlife outreach and mitigation efforts.

Redesigned Web Site
The FAA redesigned the wildlife hazard web site to make it more user-friendly and to allow more advanced data mining. The site, http://faa.gov/go/wildlife, has search fields that enable users to find data on specific airports.

Online Strike Reporting
The FAA developed mobile application software to make strike reporting easier. Now, anyone who needs to report a wildlife strike can do so via the new web site or their mobile devices using the wireless link http://www.faa.gov/mobile The FAA also placed a Quick Response (QR) code scanner on the bottom of the 2012 "Report Wildlife Strikes" posters for smart phone users who have the QR application.

Continuing Wildlife Hazard Efforts

Avian or Bird Radar Technology
In 2006, the FAA tasked the Center of Excellence for Airport Technology (CEAT) at the University of Illinois to develop and execute a performance assessment for commercially available avian radar. The FAA deployed the initial avian radar systems at Seattle-Tacoma and Whidbey Island Naval Station in 2007, Chicago O'Hare in 2009, and John F. Kennedy and Dallas-Fort Worth in 2010. The FAA continues to evaluate the performance of bird radar systems through its multi-year agreement with the United States Department of Agriculture, the National Wildlife Research Center, the National Center of Atmospheric Research, and Indiana State University.

FAA-Smithsonian Interagency Agreement
The Smithsonian identifies the bird species from remains after a strike. Bird identification helps airfield personnel implement habitat management programs. Identification also provides information so aircraft manufacturers can better design engines and aircraft to withstand the impact of likely bird collisions. The FAA provides financial support to the Smithsonian to identify bird remains from civil aviation bird strikes as a free-of-charge service to any U.S. registered aircraft, regardless of where the strike occurred, and foreign carriers if the strike occurred at a U.S. airport.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
The FAA and the USDA collaborate on research to make airports safer by reducing the risks of aircraft-wildlife collisions.

FAA Partnerships and Outreach

Bird Strike Committee USA
The FAA co-sponsors the Bird Strike Committee-USA as part of its continued public outreach and education effort to increase awareness within the aviation community about wildlife hazards. The FAA and BSC-USA signed a Memorandum of Understanding in May.

National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO)
The FAA works closely with NASAO on wildlife issues and education for thousands of non-certificated airports across the country. The FAA has partnered with NASAO on its Wildlife Committee. The FAA is working to develop a joint Memorandum of Understanding with NASAO and the United States Department of Agriculture to increase strike reporting and awareness at state- regulated airports.

AIRPORTS IN THE PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM

Chicago Midway Airport (MDW)

Chicago Midway Airport (MDW), a large air carrier hub airport, owned and operated by the city of Chicago, handles more than 17 million passengers and 253,000 aircraft operations (calendar year 2008). The City also owns and operates Chicago O'Hare International Airport.

Status: On Friday, January 18, the FAA completed its review of the city of Chicago's revised preliminary application to privatize Midway International Airport. The FAA has accepted the revised preliminary application, and the City can take the next steps to select a private airport operator.

Hendry County Airglades Airport (2IS)

Airglades Airport, a general aviation reliever airport in Clewiston, Florida, is located 80 miles from Miami International Airport. The airport is owned and operated by Hendry County. The airport has a 5,603-foot runway, a general aviation terminal and hangars. Hendry County's preliminary application was approved by the FAA on October 18, 2010.

Status:The airport sponsor is negotiating an agreement with a private operator.

Lus Muoz Marn International Airport (SJU)

Lus Muoz Marn International Airport, a medium-hub airport is owned and operated by the Puerto Rico Ports Authority. In 2008, the airport had 4.6 million passenger boardings. The FAA approved the Authority's preliminary application for the Lus Muoz Marn International Airport on December 22, 2009.

Status:The airport sponsor published a Request for Qualifications in July 2011 and prequalified six potential bidders to submit proposals. On July 19, 2012, the Puerto Rico Ports Authority selected Aerostar Airport Holdings as the winner of a public bidding process to become the private operator of the Luis Munoz Marin International Airport. The FAA held a public meeting on September 28, 2012 to hear comments on the final preliminary application to privatize the airport. The FAA approved the final application to privatizeLus Muoz Marn International Airport in San Juan, Puerto Rico on February 25, 2013.

AIRPORT INFORMATION IN THE DOCKET

To review information on the airports submitted to the docket go to: www.regulations.gov.

Chicago Midway II, Docket Number FAA-2013-0011

Airglades, Docket Number FAA-2008-1168

Lus Muoz Marn International, Docket Number FAA-2009-1144

AIRPORT PRIVATIZATION FACTS

What does FAA's acceptance of the preliminary application mean? An airport sponsor who wants to participate in the airport privatization pilot program must receive preliminary FAA approval, through an application process, to reserve one of the ten slots available under the program. Once the FAA approves the preliminary application, the sponsor can select a private operator to manage the airport, negotiate an agreement with the private operator, and prepare a final application for submittal to the FAA.

Application process. A public airport sponsor and the private operator selected to purchase or lease an airport may request participation in the pilot program by filing an application for exemption under Title 49 United States Code 47134(a).

• A public sponsor may submit a preliminary application for FAA review and approval. It must contain summary narratives identifying the objectives of the privatization initiative, a description of the process and a realistic timetable for completing the program, current airport financial statements, and a distribution ready copy of the request for proposal/qualifications. The FAA has 30 days to review the preliminary application.
• When the FAA approves the preliminary application, the applicant is guaranteed one of the 10 slots in the program.
• The airport sponsor may select a private operator, negotiate an agreement, and submit a final application to the FAA. There is no timeline for the FAA to complete its review of the final application.
• After the FAA reviews and accepts the final application and lease agreement, it publishes a notice in the Federal Register for a 60-day public review and comment period.
• The FAA completes its review, prepares its Findings and Record of Decision (ROD), addresses the public comments in the ROD, and publishes the agency decision.
• If the FAA approves the privatization application in the ROD, it monitors the legal settlement and transfer of the airport from public owner and sponsor to the new private operator and sponsor.

Number and category of airports. The legislation authorizes 10 airports to participate in the program. At least one must be a general aviation airport and no more than one large hub air carrier airport may participate. Under the pilot program, general aviation airports may be leased or sold, but an air carrier airport may only be leased.

Exemption from federal requirement. The 1996 Reauthorization Act permits the FAA to exempt an airport sponsor from certain requirements. First, the public airport sponsor may receive an exemption to use the lease or sale proceeds for non-airport purposes. Generally, all proceeds from the lease or sale of airport land must be used for the capital or operating costs of the airport. This exemption requires the approval of 65 percent of the air carriers at the airport (by number of carriers and by landed weight). The FAA also can exempt a public sponsor from an obligation to repay federal grants and return property acquired with federal assistance upon the lease or sale of the airport.

Conditions for granting exemptions. The FAA approval is based upon a number of conditions listed in Title 49 United States Code 47134. These include the private operator's ability to assume the public operator's grant obligations, and ensure continued access to the airport on reasonable terms. The private operator must operate the airport safely, maintain and improve the airport, provide security, mitigate noise and environmental impacts, and any existing collective bargaining agreements covering airport employees may not be abrogated. The lease agreement must provide a plan for continued operation of the airport in case of bankruptcy of the private operator.

Federal assistance. The private operator of an air carrier airport may receive Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants, collect Passenger Facility Charges, and charge reasonable fees. Increases to airport rates and charges that exceed the Consumer Price Index require approval of 65 percent of air carriers. Private operators of general aviation airports can receive AIP discretionary grants.

Federal oversight. Air carrier airports in the pilot program must comply with Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 139 and with Transportation Security Administration requirements for airport security.

I. 2012 SUMMARY: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND AIR TRAVEL

• U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 2.1%; world GDP increased 2.2%.
• Domestic mainline yields increased 3.5% while international yields increased 4.6% in 2012. In real terms (adjusted for inflation in FY12 $), domestic yields increased 1.1% and international yields increased 2.1%.
• Domestic enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers increased from 650.1M in 2011 to 653.7M (0.6%) in 2012. Domestic mainline carrier enplanements increased 1.3% while domestic regional carrier enplanements decreased 1.7%. International enplanements on mainline and regional air carriers increased from 81.0M in 2011 to 82.9M (2.4%) in 2012. Mainline carrier international enplanements were up 1.5% while regional carrier international enplanements increased 30.9%.
• Domestic Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) by mainline and regional air carriers increased from 572.2B in 2011 to 577.6B (1.0%) in 2012. Domestic mainline carrier RPMs increased 1.4% and domestic regional carrier RPMs decreased 1.6%. International RPMs by US carriers increased from 242.5B in 2011 to 244.7B (0.9%) in 2012. Total system RPMs increased from 814.6B in 2011 to 822.3B (0.9%) in 2012. Total mainline carrier RPMs increased by 1.1% while total regional carrier RPMs decreased by 0.7%.
• U.S. commercial air carriers (including passenger and cargo) reported an operating profit of $8.0B in 2012, compared to an operating profit of $7.9B in 2011. Operating revenues increased 3.0% in 2012, while operating expenses increased 2.9%.
• In 2012 total landings and takeoffs at combined FAA and contract towers were down 0.3% from 2011. Air carrier activity increased by 0.1% while commuter/air taxi activity decreased by 3.1%. General aviation activity rose 0.6% while military aircraft activity dropped 2.0%.

II. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS FOR FAA FORECASTS

• U.S. Real GDP is forecast to increase from $13.5T in 2012 to $22.9T in 2033, an average annual rate of 2.5%. World GDP is forecast to grow at a faster pace of 3.2% over the same 21-year period, from $53.9T to $103.7T.

• Inflation is projected to increase 1.4% in 2013 and remain moderate over the remaining 20 years of the forecast period, averaging 1.9% annually.

III. AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Mainline Air Carrier and Regionals

• Total mainline air carrier and regional RPMs are forecast to increase from 822.3B in 2012 to 1.46T in 2033, an average annual rate of 2.8%. Domestic RPMs are projected to increase 0.7% in 2013 and then grow an average of 2.2% per year during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International RPMs will be essentially flat in 2013 and then grow an average of 4.2% per year for the rest of the forecast period.
• Total mainline air carrier and regional enplanements are forecast to increase from 736.7M in 2012 to 1,146.8M in 2033, an average annual rate of 2.1%. Domestic enplanements are projected to remain steady in 2013 and then grow an average of 1.9% per year during the remaining 20-year forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to increase 0.7% in 2013 and then grow an average of 4.1% per year for the rest of the forecast period.

Mainline Air Carriers

• U.S. mainline carrier domestic RPMs are forecast to increase 0.8% in 2013 and grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period. U.S. mainline carrier domestic enplanements are forecast to be flat in 2013. For the remaining 20 years of the forecast period, enplanements grow at an average annual rate of 1.9%, reaching 715.5M in 2033.
• U.S. mainline carrier international RPMs are forecast to be essentially flat in 2013 and grow at an average annual rate of 4.2% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period. U.S. mainline carrier international enplanements are forecast to increase 0.7% in 2013, and then grow an average of 4.1% per year thereafter, reaching 180.9M in 2033. The fastest growing region is Latin America (4.5% per year), followed by Asia/Pacific (4.3% per year), and the Atlantic (3.2% per year).

• Total passengers to/from the U.S. (U.S. and foreign flag carriers) are projected to increase 2.6% in 2013 (calendar year). The average annual rate of growth between 2013 and 2033 is 4.2%, with passengers increasing from 176.4M to 402.9M. The fastest growing region is Latin America at 4.7% per year, followed by Asia/Pacific (4.3% per year), Atlantic (4.1% per year) and Canadian Transborder (3.1% per year).

• Domestic mainline passenger real yield (adjusted for inflation) is forecast to increase from 14.10 cents in 2012 to 14.24 cents in 2013 (up 1.0%). Thereafter, domestic mainline carrier real yield declines at an average rate of 0.5% dropping to 12.85 cents in 2033. International mainline real yield is forecast to decrease from 14.74 cents in 2012 to 14.23 cents in 2013 (down 3.4%). Thereafter, international real yield declines at a rate of 0.6% annually, falling to 12.66 cents by 2033.

• U.S. mainline air carrier passenger jet fleet increases from 3,782 aircraft in 2012 to 4,907 aircraft in 2033, an average annual increase of 1.4%. The fleet is projected to shrink by 1.0% in 2013 (38 aircraft), with all of the decrease attributed to the grounding of less fuel-efficient narrow body aircraft.

Regional Carriers

• Regional carrier enplanements are forecast to decrease 0.2% to 161.7M in 2013, and grow 2.2% a year thereafter, reaching 250.4M in 2033.

• Regional carrier RPMs are forecast to increase 0.4% in 2013 and grow at an average annual rate of 3.2% for the remaining 20 years of the forecast period.
• The regional carrier passenger aircraft fleet increases from 2,403 aircraft in 2012 to 2,436 aircraft in 2033, an average annual increase of 0.2%. The fleet is projected to shrink 2.6% in 2013 (63 aircraft).
• Regional jets increase from 1,645 aircraft in 2012 to 2,082 aircraft in 2033, an annual increase of 0.8%. All of the increase is attributed to jet aircraft in the 70-90-seat category.

Cargo

• Total air cargo RTMs (freight/express and mail) increase from 36.4B in 2012 to 89.0B in 2033-up an average of 4.6% a year; domestic RTMs increase 0.8% a year; international RTMs increase 5.7% a year.

• The cargo fleet increases from 840 aircraft in 2012 to 1,211 aircraft in 2033, an average increase of 1.8% a year.

General Aviation

• The general aviation fleet increases from 220,670 aircraft in 2012 to 246,375 in 2033, growing an average of 0.5% a year.
• Fixed-wing turbine aircraft grow at a rate of 2.8% per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft decline at a rate of 0.3% per year, and rotorcraft grow at a rate of 2.7% per year.
• General aviation hours flown are forecast to increase from 24.6M in 2012 to 33.6M in 2033, an average annual growth rate of 1.5% a year.
• Fixed-wing turbine aircraft hours flown grow at a rate of 3.5% per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft hours flown decline at a rate of 0.5% per year, and rotorcraft hours flown grow at a rate of 2.7% per year.

IV. FAA WORKLOAD FORECASTS

Operations at Airports with FAA Traffic Control and Contract Tower Service

• Total operations are forecast to decrease 0.3% to 50.4M in 2013, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.0% for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 61.1M in 2033. The average annual growth rate for the entire 21-year forecast period is 0.9%.
• Commercial operations decrease 0.4% in 2013, and grow at a rate of 1.6% thereafter, reaching 30.0M in 2033.
• General aviation operations decrease 0.2% in 2013, and grow at a rate of 0.5% thereafter, totaling 28.5M in 2033.

Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Operations

• TRACON operations are forecast to decrease 1.2% to 37.3M in 2013, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.2% for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 47.2M in 2033. The average annual growth rate for the entire 21-year forecast period is 1.1%.
• Commercial TRACON operations decrease 0.7% in 2013, and grow at a rate of 1.6% thereafter, reaching 29.9M in 2033.
• General aviation TRACON operations decrease 2.2% in 2013, and grow at a rate of 0.6% thereafter, totaling 14.9M in 2033.

Aircraft Handled at Air Route Traffic Control Centers

• IFR aircraft handled at FAA air route traffic control centers are forecast to increase to 41.1M (0.4%) in 2013 and then grow 1.8% a year over the remaining 20 years of the forecast period, reaching 58.2M in 2033.
• Commercial IFR aircraft handled increase from 32.6M in 2012 to 32.8M in 2013 (up 0.7%). Thereafter commercial IFR aircraft handled grows at an average annual rate of 2.0%, reaching 48.8M in 2033.
• General aviation IFR aircraft handled decrease 1.3% during 2013. Thereafter, general aviation IFR aircraft handled grow at an average annual rate of 0.8%, reaching 7.5M in 2033.

The Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system uses aggregate, protected data from industry and government voluntary reporting programs, without identifying the source of the data, to proactively find safety issues, identify safety enhancements, and measure the effectiveness of solutions. ASIAS began in 2007 and now has 44 members and receives voluntary data representing 95 percent of all commercial air carrier operations. It connects 131 data and information sources across the industry and is integrated into the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) process.

Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP)
ASAP encourages air carrier and repair station employees to voluntarily report safety information that may be critical to identifying potential precursors to accidents. Under ASAP, safety issues are resolved through corrective action rather than through punishment or discipline. An ASAP is based on a safety partnership that includes the FAA and the certificate holder, and usually includes a third party, such as the employee's labor organization. Today, 98 operators have 231 programs covering pilots, mechanics, flight attendants, and dispatchers.

Air Traffic Safety Action Program (ATSAP)
ATSAP is an agreement between the FAA, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA), and the National Association of Government Employees (NAGE) that fosters a voluntary, cooperative, non-punitive environment for FAA air traffic employees to openly report safety concerns. By Order, all personnel providing or directly supporting air traffic services are covered, including management. A related Confidential Information Sharing Program (CISP) integrates voluntary safety information self-reported by pilots and air traffic controllers. This data-sharing program gives the FAA a more complete picture of the national airspace system by collecting, assessing and reviewing safety events from the perspective of both pilots and air traffic controllers.

Technical Operations Safety Action Program (T-SAP)
T-SAP is an agreement between the FAA and the Professional Aviation Safety Specialists (PASS) that allows technicians represented by PASS and other non-bargaining unit Technical Operations employees the opportunity to report potential safety hazards voluntarily and confidentially. Still a demonstration program, T-SAP is available to employees in the Central Service Area. Plans are underway for national expansion.

Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA)
FOQA collects and analyzes digital flight data generated during normal operations. These programs provide greater insight into the total flight operations environment. FOQA data is unique because it can provide objective information that is not available through other methods. The information and insights provided by FOQA can improve safety by significantly enhancing training effectiveness, operational procedures, maintenance and engineering procedures, and air traffic control procedures. Fifty U.S. operators currently have FAA-approved FOQA programs.

Voluntary Disclosure Reporting Program (VDRP)
VDRP provides incentives for an air carrier, repair station, qualified fractional ownership program, Production Approval Holder, or other eligible FAA-regulated entity to voluntarily identify, report, and correct instances of regulatory noncompliance. The program allows the FAA to oversee and participate in the root-case analysis of the events leading to the violations. The FAA reviews, approves, and oversees corrective actions and conducts follow-up surveillance. The agency accepts the voluntary disclosure, foregoes legal enforcement action, and protects the public release of qualifying disclosures and corrective actions when all of the following criteria are met:

• The certificate holder, qualified fractional ownership program, or PAH notifies the FAA of the apparent violation immediately after detecting it and before the agency learns of it by other means.
• The apparent violation is inadvertent.
• The apparent violation does not indicate a lack, or reasonable question, of qualification of the certificate holder, qualified fractional ownshership program, or PAH.
• Immediate action, satisfactory to the FAA, is taken upon discovery to terminate the conduct that resulted in the apparent violation.
• The certificate holder, qualified fractional ownership program, or PAH has developed or is developing a comprehensive fix and schedule of implementation that is satisfactory to the FAA. The fix must include a follow-up self-audit, in addition to any FAA audits.

Because they are inherently different from manned aircraft, introducing UAS into the nations airspace is challenging for both the FAA and aviation community. UAS must be integrated into a National Airspace System (NAS) that is evolving from ground-based navigation aids to a GPS-based system in NextGen. Safe integration of UAS involves gaining a better understanding of operational issues, such as training requirements, operational specifications and technology considerations.

The FAAs Role: Safety
Safety is the FAA's top mission, and the agency maintains the world's safest aviation system. As a provider of air traffic control services, the FAA also must ensure the safety and efficiency of the nations entire airspace.

The FAA first authorized use of unmanned aircraft in the NAS in 1990. Since then, the agency has authorized limited use of UAS for important missions in the public interest, such as firefighting, disaster relief, search and rescue, law enforcement, border patrol, military training and testing and evaluation. Today, UAS perform border and port surveillance by the Department of Homeland Security, help with scientific research and environmental monitoring by NASA and NOAA, support public safety by law enforcement agencies, help state universities conduct research, and support various other missions for public (government) entities.

Unmanned aircraft are flying now in the national airspace system under very controlled conditions. Operations potentially range from ground level to above 50,000 feet, depending on the specific type of aircraft. However, UAS operations are currently not authorized in Class B airspace, which exists over major urban areas and contains the highest density of manned aircraft in the National Airspace System.

There are currently two ways to get FAA approval to operate a UAS. The first is to obtain an experimental airworthiness certificate for private sector (civil) aircraft to do research and development, training and flight demonstrations. The second is to obtain a Certificate of Waiver or Authorization (COA) for public aircraft. Routine operation of UAS over densely-populated areas is prohibited.

Civil UAS
Obtaining an experimental airworthiness certificate for a particular UAS is currently the only way civil operators of unmanned aircraft are accessing the NAS. Experimental certificate regulations preclude carrying people or property for compensation or hire, but do allow operations for research and development, flight and sales demonstrations and crew training. The FAA is working with civilian operators to collect technical and operational data that will help refine the UAS airworthiness certification process. The agency is currently developing a future path for safe integration of civil UAS into the NAS as part of NextGen implementation.

Public UAS
COAs are available to public entities that want to fly a UAS in civil airspace. Common uses today include law enforcement, firefighting, border patrol, disaster relief, search and rescue, military training, and other government operational missions.

• Applicants make their request through an online process and the FAA evaluates the proposed operation to see if it can be conducted safely.
• The COA allows an operator to use a defined block of airspace and includes special provisions unique to the proposed operation. For instance, a COA may require flying only under Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and/or only during daylight hours. COAs usually are issued for a specific periodup to two years in many cases.
• Most COAs require coordination with an appropriate air traffic control facility and may require a transponder on the UAS to operate in certain types of airspace.
• Because UAS technology cannot currently comply with see and avoid rules that apply to all aircraft, a visual observer or an accompanying chase plane must maintain visual contact with the UAS and serve as its eyes when operating outside airspace restricted from other users.
• COAs Issued:
  2009 146
  2010 298
  2011 313
  2012 257
  There were 327 COAs active as of February 15, 2013.

Streamlining the Process
The FAA has been working with its government partners to streamline COA procedures. In 2009, the FAA, NASA and the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security formed a UAS Executive Committee, or ExCom to address UAS integration issues. The ExCom established a working group that developed suggestions to expedite the COA process and increase transparency.

For new applications from public users, the FAA has an on-line process that ensures paperwork is complete and ready to be assessed. Today, the average time to issue an authorization for non-emergency operations is less than 60 days, and the renewal period is two years. The agency has expedited procedures in place to grant one-time COAs for time-sensitive emergency missions, such as disaster relief and humanitarian efforts.

Model Aircraft
Recreational use of airspace by model aircraft is covered by FAA Advisory Circular 91-57, which generally limits operations to below 400 feet above ground level and away from airports and air traffic. In 2007, the FAA clarified that AC 91-57 only applies to modelers, and specifically excludes individuals or companies flying model aircraft for business purposes.

The FAA guidance is available at: http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/91-57.pdf

Operation and Certification Standards
Integrating UAS into the nations airspace presents both opportunities and challenges. However, everything the FAA does is focused on ensuring the safety of the nations aviation system. New policies, procedures and approval processes will address the increasing desire by civilian operators to fly UAS in the NAS. Developing and implementing new UAS standards and guidance is a long-term effort.

• The FAA chartered a UAS Aviation Rulemaking Committee in 2011 to develop inputs and recommendations on appropriate operational procedures, regulatory standards and policies before allowing routine UAS access to the nations airspace.
• The FAA has asked RTCA organized in 1935 as the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics, a group that facilitates expert advice to the agency on technical issues to work with industry to assist in the development of UAS standards. RTCAs technical group will address how UAS will handle communication, command and control and how they will sense and avoid other aircraft.
• The FAA continues to work closely with its international aviation counterparts to harmonize standards, policies, procedures and regulatory requirements.

UAS Test Sites
In the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012, Congress directed the FAA to establish a program to integrate UAS into the national airspace system at six test ranges. The designation and operation of test sites will be a tool for testing all aspects of UAS integration. Some facets of test site selection and operation include:

• Safe designation of airspace for integrated manned and unmanned flight operations in the national airspace system
• Development of certification standards and air traffic requirements for unmanned flight operations
• Coordinating with and leveraging the resources of NASA and the Department of Defense
• Addressing both civil and public unmanned aircraft systems
• Ensuring that the program is coordinated with the Next Generation Air Transportation System
• Ensuring the safety of unmanned aircraft systems and related navigation procedures before they are integrated into the national airspace system

The FAA issued a Screening Information Request on February 14, 2013 for proposals to manage these sites. You can read the press release here:http://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=14313

Small Unmanned Aircraft
Small unmanned aircraft (sUAS) are likely to grow most quickly in civil and commercial operations because of their versatility and relatively low initial cost and operating expenses. The FAA is working on a proposed rule governing the use of a wide range of small civil unmanned aircraft systems.

The 2012 reauthorization bill also directed the FAA to allow a government public safety agency to operate unmanned aircraft weighing 4.4 pounds or less under certain restrictions. The bill specified these UAS must be flown within the line of sight of the operator, less than 400 feet above the ground, during daylight conditions, inside Class G (uncontrolled) airspace and more than five miles from any airport or other location with aviation activities.

Prior to the congressional action, the FAA and the Justice Department had been working on an agreement to streamline the COA process for law enforcement, and both agencies signed a formal Memorandum of Understanding in March 2013. Initially, law enforcement organizations will receive a COA for training and performance evaluation. When the organization has shown proficiency in flying its UAS, it will receive an operational COA. UAS will not be flown over outdoor assemblies of people or heavily trafficked roadways. The agreement also expands the allowable UAS weight up to 25 pounds.

A New Office for New Technology
In 2012, the FAA established the Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration Office to provide a one-stop portal for civil and public use UAS in U.S. airspace. This office is developing a comprehensive plan to integrate and establish operational and certification requirements for UAS. It will also oversee and coordinate UAS research and development.

Over more than 50 years, the FAA has a proven track record of introducing new technology and aircraft safely into the NAS. The agency will successfully meet the challenges posed by UAS technology in a thoughtful, careful manner that ensures safety and addresses privacy issues while promoting economic growth.

For more information: http://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/uas/

What should passengers do to avoid injuries?
Flying is the safest way to travel. Passengers can easily prevent injuries from unexpected turbulence by keeping their seat belt buckled at all times. The FAA's tips for staying safe:

• Listen to the flight attendants. Pay attention to the safety briefing at the beginning of your flight and read the safety briefing card.
• Buckle up. Keep you and your family safe by wearing a seat belt at all times.
• Use an approved child safety seat or device if your child is under two.
• Prevent inflight injuries by adhering to your airline's carry-on restrictions.

What do airlines do to avoid turbulence and prevent injuries?
Working together through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST), the FAA developed guidance material to help air carriers and other operators prevent turbulence injuries. CAST develops an integrated, data-driven strategy to reduce the commercial aviation fatality risk in the United States and promotes government and industry safety initiatives throughout the world. Some of the material responds to investigative work from the National Transportation Safety Board. The focus of the material (see additional reading) is to help air carriers avoid the conditions that cause turbulence and minimize the risks when airplanes do encounter it. This impacts the operations and training of flight crews, flight attendants, dispatchers and managers.

The FAA recommends that air carriers:

• improve dispatch procedures by keeping communication channels open full-time;
• include turbulence in weather briefings;
• promote real-time information sharing between pilot and dispatcher;
• reinforce the air carrier's turbulence avoidance policy through dispatcher training;
• consider rerouting using automation, atmospheric modeling, and data displays; and
• use all applicable weather data as well as reporting and forecasting graphics.

The FAA also encourages air carriers to use operating procedures and training to prevent turbulence injuries, emphasize the importance of flight attendant's personal safety, promote communication and coordination, and gather data and review the air carrier's history of turbulence encounters and injuries.

How many people have been injured during turbulence?

Passenger Crew Total

2002 22 19 41
2003 6 33 39
2004 1 31 32
2005 2 16 18
2006 2 10 12
2007 4 22 26
2008 3 11 14
2009 47 17 64
2010 18 32 50
2011 5 28 33

Additional reading:

• Advisory Circular 120-88A Preventing Injuries Caused by Turbulence, 2007
• Advisory Circular 00-30 Atmospheric Turbulence Avoidance, 1997
• Airplane Upset Recovery Training Aid
• Computer Simulation of an Aircraft Cabin

The VALE program is available to commercial service airports located in poor air quality areas of the country as designated by the Environmental Protection Agency. Airports can obtain VALE funding for cleaner technology that the FAA validates as being cost effective. VALE projects also receive emission reduction credits from State governments, which the airports can use to meet future environmental obligations under the Clean Air Act.

VALE allows airport sponsors to take proactive steps to improve air quality at their facilities. Projects can range from the purchase of low-emission vehicles to major infrastructure improvements. Examples of previously funded projects include: preconditioned air units, electric ground support equipment like bag tugs and belt loaders; natural gas refueling stations for airport buses and shuttles; gate electrification; and alternative fuel systems including geothermal systems and solar facilities

In fiscal year 2012, the FAA issued VALE grants for five projects at five airports for low-emission projects. Since 2005, the FAA has funded 57 low-emission projects at 33 airports representing a total investment of $146 million ($116 million in federal grants and $30 million in local airport matching funds) in clean airport technology. Through VALE, airports are reducing ozone emissions by approximately 370 tons per year which is the equivalent to removing 20,600 cars and trucks off the road annually.

For information about the program including a list of eligible airports and projects, go to the VALE web site: www.faa.gov/airports/environmental/vale.