Silver Linings, Silver Bullets, and Other Fictions: Avoiding VFR Flight Into Instrument Weather
Flying under visual flight rules (VFR) is a great way to experience general aviation (GA). VFR offers a sense of freedom that many pilots prize. So long as the weather cooperates, pilots can fly VFR from one end of the country to another. VFR flying allows a more flexible, less rigid approach than instrument flight rules (IFR). In some cases, VFR flexibility can offer advantages over IFR, even when the weather deteriorates, and air traffic control (ATC) procedures may restrict operations. While they are edge cases, these circumstances do exist. And some pilots prefer to hold complete control of the flight rather than balance it with ATC. VFR weather minimums can be as low as one mile of visibility and remain clear of clouds.
Flying under VFR certainly provides pilots with a sense of freedom and flexibility, but it also presents significant risks, particularly the danger of inadvertently entering instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). This scenario is one of the leading causes of fatal accidents in general aviation. While many pilots may have a story of a narrow escape that taught them an invaluable lesson, some may inadvertently develop a risky habit. An analysis of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database from 2014 to 2023 reveals 180 IMC-related general aviation accidents, with a fatality rate exceeding 82%. These tragic incidents resulted in the loss of 268 lives and left another 29 individuals seriously injured.
Dangerous Fictions
We all use idioms as shorthand heuristics to get through life, but the fit of these idioms can be less than ideal when misaligned with the circumstances. One of the titular examples is a case in point. We use the idea of a silver lining to a dark cloud to motivate us in a difficult situation. But this fiction, applied to our literal flying, is a terrible idea. There is no silver lining to VFR into IMC. That dark cloud is just an increased risk.
The other titular example is an exposition of our desire to find quick, easy, and complete solutions to problems. But again, in reality, silver bullets are rare, if they exist at all. Solutions are rarely single-factor. In the case of VFR into IMC, the obvious silver bullet would be an instrument rating. But our research shows that, over several years, the majority of accident pilots were instrument-rated, and the decade's average was about 55% lacking an instrument rating. This implies that proper instrument training alone, while it can reduce the risks, is not a silver bullet.
If these fictions are less than helpful in our efforts to reduce or eliminate VFR into IMC accidents, what is the solution?
Helpful Realities
Reality does not provide silver bullets, but it does provide solutions. As previously mentioned, an instrument rating doesn’t eliminate the risk of an IMC encounter, but it does give pilots the tools to extricate themselves. However, it’s important to remember that even if you are instrument current, the goal should remain a rapid escape, not continuation. If you are current and plan to continue into IMC, you should go ahead and file IFR. Note that if weather conditions are deteriorating and you are instrument-current and capable, the time to file is before you are in the clouds. Avoiding the increased temptation of continuation bias may be a challenge for instrument-rated pilots, but on balance, the additional skills are worth pursuing and provide a net safety benefit, especially for self-aware pilots.
Another common intervention is better weather information. Here, there are limitations to our data. The massive increase in the use of commercial weather services is a boon to the availability of weather information. Still, it makes tracking whether a pilot received a weather briefing and what that briefing contained less complete. Even so, our data shows that more than a quarter of accident pilots received a documented briefing and/or demonstrated a clear understanding of the weather conditions they would encounter later. So once again, we see that a proposed silver bullet, while more effective than the last point, is still not completely effective. But it is a part of the solution.
Another prevalent risk is spatial disorientation (SD). The NTSB cited SD in nearly 50% of accidents they reviewed. SD is a condition in which the pilot loses awareness of the aircraft's basic orientation. While SD can occur in other conditions, the IMC environment is particularly prone to disorientation due to the lack of visual references, especially at night. The body’s ability to sense a change in position through organs like the vestibular system can be tricked by gradual changes over time, leaving the pilot in an ever-tightening spiral while thinking they are flying straight and level when lacking a visual reference. Without training and experience, it’s very easy to fall prey to SD.
Additionally, a series of other factors were present in some accidents but not as foundational as those we’ve previously discussed. The NTSB cited instrument failure in only seven accidents over the 10-year period. The agency cited in-flight breakups in 14 cases, mainly due to thunderstorm encounters. While these causes do deserve consideration, they are largely covered by existing training around partial panel and thunderstorm avoidance.
Probably the most challenging factor is that more than 40% of accidents show some level of intentional flight into IMC. This can vary from the more innocent zip through a brief bit of cloud to get to a presumed clearing beyond, to the flagrant violations of operating rules. In all these cases, the pilot knew, or should have known from clearly visible conditions, that VFR was not going to be possible but took off anyway. A good intervention strategy could help greatly in these cases.
Creating Your Safety Arsenal
As we’ve been documenting, there are no silver bullets, but there are some regular bullets in this metaphorical context. By combining these items into a multifaceted safety approach, we can create an arsenal that reinforces safety strategies to prevent a potentially dangerous IMC encounter.
At the strategic level, investing in an instrument rating is probably the best foundation, if possible. While more than a few instrument-rated pilots were involved in VFR into IMC accidents, the rating does give you a much better tool set to deal with any encounters. Another addition to your toolbox is a good set of personal minimums. Creating a set of personal minimums gives pilots an objective set of metrics to aid in making go/no-go decisions and helps them avoid external pressures.
At the operational level, using a flight risk assessment tool (FRAT) is a good way to enforce standards, such as personal minimums. It also reinforces proper weather briefings to ensure conditions have been carefully considered. FRATs can be as simple as a basic spreadsheet. You can find an example from the FAA Safety Team (FAASTeam) here. Once pilots get some experience using one, they can start customizing it for their specific circumstances. FRATs are an excellent way to establish self-accountability and detect building risk before it becomes apparent in any one factor.
At the cockpit level, keeping flying skills sharp is critical. The best way to do that is to practice regularly. Pilots can accomplish this in many ways. The FAASTeam WINGS Pilot Proficiency Program is a great place to start. WINGS has the added benefit of meeting the flight review requirements, but the core concept of a continual proficiency approach is key. Finding a good instructor or two and booking routine flights is a great way to keep building skills.
Hand-flying skills are only part of the challenge of aviation. Decision-making is another important skill, and just like flying, pilots can practice it. Modern technology allows us to get weather briefings and “plan” a flight quickly. These fictional flights are a great way for pilots to run through their FRATs and decision-making process. Since there isn’t any intent to fly, external pressures are eliminated while skill is built. And these practice runs can be a good reference for later flights (i.e., pilots who can decide to no-go on a practice flight plan with no pressure can probably do the same on a real flight with similar conditions).
Arming ourselves with this collection of skills, systems, and practices will have the impact of our fictional silver bullets while providing an actual silver lining.
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