FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine
Civil Aerospace Medical Institute
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Report No: DOT/FAA/AM-97/23

Title and Subtitle: The Use of Weather Information in Aeronautical Decision-Making: II

Report Date: November 1997

Authors: Driskill, W.E., Weissmuller, J.Q., Hand, D.K.; and Hunter, D.R.

Abstract: An investigation was conducted of the values, or worth functions, pilots attribute to weather and terrain variables in making decisions about flight in a single-engine aircraft under visual flight rules. This study replicated earlier exploratory research (Driskill, Weissmuller, Quebe, Hand, Dittmar, and Hunter, 1997) that used data from a single geographic area. The present study obtained data from pilots in six geographic regions of the United States.

The results of this study confirm the three tentative hypotheses suggested by the data from the initial study: (1) Cognitive processes that pilots utilize in making aeronautical decisions can be modeled using regression methods; (2) The values pilots associate with varying levels of ceiling, visibility, and precipitation are a function of the terrain over which the flight is made; and (3) While values differ among pilots, specific policies can be found to describe how they assign weights in making decisions about beginning or continuing a flight.

Generally, pilots use a compensatory decision strategy, combining the weather variables in making judgments about flight by compensating for poor conditions in one variable with better conditions in other variables. However, under some circumstances, pilots also tend to employ a worst-factor strategy; that is, pilots appear to have personal standards for either ceiling, visibility, or precipitation, below which they become reluctant to make a flight.

Key Words: Pilots, Aircraft Pilots, Decision-Making, Aviation Safety, Linear Modeling, Policy Capturing

No. of Pages: 55