Thank you, Hassan [Shahidi]. And good morning, everyone.
Seventy-five years ago, the jet age was just beginning. And with it, new challenges, new opportunities, and a new world that opened. And with all of that, new risks.
But over those years, The Flight Safety Foundation has always been there as a guide, as a conscience that safety would come first in this new age.
That the time and effort we put in, and the collaboration we undertake would be worth it, because a safer aviation system was not just the right thing to do. But it was possible to achieve.
People like Jerry Lederer and David Morrison started that work. And it continues today under Hassan’s leadership, and the stewardship of the Foundation’s members.
The level of safety we experience today is simply unparalleled. And while we celebrate it – as we should – we cannot take it for granted.
Our work is not done!
Because just like Jerry and David, a new era of aviation has started for us. And with it come new and unique challenges
We have a public that demands—rightfully so—not one accident even when new forces show up. Like a pandemic. Or cyber threats.
We’ve seen the promise of Safety Management Systems, especially throughout the pandemic for airlines. It has absorbed risk shocks from both the rapid downturn in traffic to the faster-than-expected recovery.
Now it’s time for that safety system to expand to other parts of the aviation system: Manufacturers producing commercial aircraft and charter, commuter and air tour operators. We hope to have a draft rule out soon.
Now, don’t get me wrong: I’m an evangelist for SMS.
But that’s just one layer of safety. It’s a good one. A preventative one.
The challenge of our age is to move to a predictive safety system.
Through SMS and other systems, the aviation community has amassed large and valuable amounts of safety data. Hidden inside are risks we likely didn’t know existed but that we need to address.
Within the FAA, we’re evolving toward using predictive analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, to yield quality, consistent streams of safety data.
The System Safety Management Transformation program is giving us a more comprehensive risk picture showing where accidents are more likely to happen.
This program also provides a predictive analytics engine that detects possible safety events, combines them statistically, and estimates the likelihood that a string of events could lead to an accident.
Through these tools, we can connect the dots and share risk information with industry stakeholders and international partners.
The foundations for this data sharing culture already exist: The Commercial Aviation Safety Team, the General Aviation Joint Safety Committee, and the Aviation Sharing Information and Analysis System. These platforms are working in the U.S. and we’re seeing similar ones around the world.
Working with international partners to collectively harmonize our safety analytics and metrics, and working to build a shared risk portfolio, are critical to establish a predictive safety system.
Insight from data alone won’t get us to the next level of safety. We still need a human in the loop, as they say. And we must continue our work on how the machine and the human interact.
We expect to issue an Advisory Circular on flight path management in December. It’s going to help operators and simulation training centers improve operational procedures and training to mitigate risk in the areas of: manual flight operations, managing automated systems, pilot monitoring, and energy management.
This is especially critical during times of heavy workload. So to maintain manual flight operations skills, we advise operators to fly manually when risk is lower, like during flight line operations or during passenger operations when traffic is light and the weather is good.
On Wednesday morning, Joshua Jackson from the FAA’s Flight Standards office will provide more details about the AC.
And Dr. Kathy Abbott, the FAA’s Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor for flight deck human factors is leading an ICAO Working Group to look at how we can promote this guidance throughout the world.
Safety requires us to be honest and direct about risks, even when they may not be comfortable topics. One of those is pilot mental health. I’ve worked in this area and led employee safety and health efforts.
Before that, I was a crisis volunteer in the pilot’s union. During those conversations providing counseling and resources, it was a reminder that pilots are people.
The stresses and strains of the job can get to anyone. Not only are they better when there is an open, supportive culture. The whole aviation system is healthier.
We have much work to do to remove the stigma and fears about coming forward about experiencing mental health challenges.
With the kind of growth and innovation we continue to see, and the retirements hastened by the pandemic experience, this industry needs new people. Aviation has always had the biggest breakthroughs and been at its best when disruptors show up.
We can only imagine what kind of innovation, and what challenges, the next 75 years will bring.
One thing is certain – if this industry isn’t safe, then it won’t be successful. The efforts we make today will determine the course of the future.
Thank you.